4 Hypotheses on Why China Suddenly Declared this New Air Defense Zone | Robert Kelly — Asian Security Blog:
SK/BB: Why are the Chinese doing this?
Me:
- 1. Belligerence: the Chinese really are picking a fight with Japan.
- 2. Blowback: the CCP is doing this for domestic legitimacy purposes.
- 3. Incompetence: the CCP and PLA didn’t really realize just how sharply locals and the US would react.
- 4. The Transition: Xi Jinping wants to make a splash as the new boss.
The problem is that Chinese foreign policy decision-making is so opaque, that we have almost no idea which of these options is most accurate – or if it’s something else entirely. My guess is #2, because the Chinese have always struck me as pretty cautious, even crafty, in managing their rise.