FiveThirtyEight: 2012 Iowa Republican Caucus Projections - Election 2012 - NYTimes.com: These forecasts are formulated from an average of recent surveys, with adjustments made to account for a polling firm's accuracy, freshness of a poll and each candidate's momentum. Although this improves accuracy, there is still considerable uncertainty in the forecast as is reflected in the range of possible vote totals for each candidate. Read more about the methodology.