11 March, 2014

The Case for Scott Adams’s Irrational Optimism | Ordinary Times

The Case for Scott Adams’s Irrational Optimism | Ordinary Times: Most of us tend to weight the probability of success in something we try more than the consequences. Yes, a strict rationalist might start ten companies each with only a 20% probability of success but promising a 10x return on investment. But most of us can’t put our hearts into something day after day if we think it only has a 20% chance of success. Even criminals seem to behave according to how likely they think it is that they will get caught rather than how severe the consequences would be to getting caught. [pdf]



If this is the case, maybe irrational optimism is the only way to success. Maybe you have to rely on your brain twisting that 20% into a 70% so that you can get to work in the morning and give it your full effort. How else can you put your heart into a velcro bag that might someday be something bigger?