Innovation Lessons from the Rise of Tesla Motors - Innovation for Growth: In large part, those two alternatives ultimately come down to a single, crucial question: how close are we to the obsolescence point for combustion engines? Most scenarios assume that we are not very near indeed. Warren Buffett apparently thinks all cars on the road will be electric by 2030, but most analysts assume it will take us that long just to get to 50% EV penetration. But what if Buffet is correct, and the EV tipping point is right in front of us? What if Buffet is underestimating the rate of change?
I think Buffett is right. It looks to me like we’re starting to hit the tipping point. The analysts are assuming that electric vehicles are going to follow curve C. But students of innovation know that they will follow the S-Curve.