There’s a renowned fictional case study (originated by Jack Brittain and Sim Sitkin) which is used in business schools to help students understand the risks around poorly informed decision-making. The scenario that students are given is to imagine that they are John Carter, the founder of a car racing team. The team is coming up to a very important race – important because there is big prize money at stake, and doing well in the race could mean that they get great publicity but also that they stand a much better chance of winning a big new sponsorship deal which is sorely needed.
The problem however, is that in 7 out of the last 24 races the engine in the Carter racing car has failed, meaning an early retirement from those races.