In permanence crisis: An argument for state capacity and civil service reform

https://andrewgreenway.substack.com/p/in-permanence-crisis

A government that is serious about state capacity must do 2 things, urgently and in parallel:

One, fundamentally reboot the character of the ‘permanent’ civil service, beginning with an independent Royal Commission like the Victorian-era Northcote-Trevelyan report that founded the modern bureaucracy.

And two, create new institutions that adopt the working styles, technologies and affordances given to public officials who have shown how the state can do great things in special circumstances. A corollary of creating new institutions is that some existing, legacy organisations must be encouraged to wither and die.

I talked tech with third graders for 90 minutes. Here's what happened.

https://www.thehomescreen.org/p/i-talked-tech-with-third-graders

We need to stop focusing on specific products and platforms and focus on the roots of the problem:

• Algorithmic mediation that invisibly shapes our experiences

• Business models that feed off of “engagement” (aka addiction)

• Data that is extracted, amassed, and weaponized against users—jacking up prices, targeting kids with predatory content, and keeping you scrolling.

TikTok or Instagram or Roblox or whatever… the products are not THE problem. They are the SYMPTOM of the problem(s). If 8-year olds can get it, surely our policymakers can. 

how the CIA and MI6 got hold of Putin’s Ukraine plans and why nobody believed them

https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/2026/feb/20/a-war-foretold-cia-mi6-putin-ukraine-plans-russia

Putin’s tiny planning circle also played a role, creating a hopelessly cocky plan that had not been subjected to a rigorous critique by intelligence professionals versed in Ukrainian realities. Russian troops entered Ukraine expecting a surgical regime change operation with little resistance, rather than the bitter battles that awaited them. Moscow did not bother with many actions that western military analysts had assumed would accompany the invasion, such as taking out Ukraine’s power and communications networks. The Russian army assumed they would control most of the country in a matter of days, so decided to make the subsequent occupation easier by keeping the infrastructure intact. Instead, the working mobile networks and ready power supply proved crucial for the coordination of Ukraine’s hastily assembled defence forces.

“Half of it is we overestimated Russian military performance and underestimated the Ukrainian military,” said Michael Kofman, an analyst at the Carnegie Endowment in Washington. “But the other half is the Russians didn’t execute the operation remotely how many anticipated it might go, or in a way that made sense.”

u/ElectricStings on validating AI videos

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/comments/1rak11v/why_fake_ai_videos_of_uk_urban_decline_are_taking/o6l2typ/

If you're the type of person who believes society is on the decline because [insert scapegoat here] then seeing a video that confirms this is going to feel really damn good regardless of if it's real or not.

On a deeper level, it's avoidance.

Avoiding an uncomfortable truth as it may come into conflict with some deeply held beliefs, beliefs which form a foundation of our personality. If our beliefs are wrong then who are we as a person. That experience is very uncomfortable to us - it feels like an attacks, so we circle around avoiding evidence, confirming our own world view.

And so these videos give a sense of comfort and validation that who we are is not wrong.

Apologizing for outliving my executioners

https://williamsrecord.com/471995/opinions/apologizing-for-outliving-my-executioners/

I have spent time in Iran. I have breathed the same air as the men who aimed Khamenei’s rifles. Members of my own family stood before his firing squads — some, like my grandfather, narrowly survived; others, including my uncles and cousins, did not. That is not a metaphor. That is history. My father’s family fled in 1979, as the regime was taking hold. My mother lived under it until 2000 — and her parents, my grandparents, still do. 

My family did not leave over a “political disagreement.” They fled a graveyard that was still being dug. When you ask us to tone down our sense of relief that Khamenei’s reign is over, you are asking us to apologize for outliving our executioners.  

How long do electric vehicle batteries actually last?

https://www.npr.org/2026/03/02/nx-s1-5706658/electric-vehicle-battery-lifespan

Recurrent, a research firm that pulls in data from over 30,000 EV drivers, describes it as an "S curve." There's a rapid decline at the beginning, a long leveling off, and then a more rapid decline at the end.

"It's very much like breaking in a pair of shoes," says Liz Najman, the director of market insights at Recurrent. The shoes start out stiff, but quickly get a little more give. "And then your shoes just last you," she says, until at some point, "It's all over, it's a rapid decline."

The Gulf next door

https://www.semafor.com/article/03/01/2026/view-the-gulf-next-door

Stephen Walt in Foreign Affairs described Trump’s foreign policy as “predatory hegemony”: “The bottom line is that acting as a predatory hegemon will weaken the networks of power and influence on which the United States has long relied and which created the leverage that Trump is now trying to exploit… Maybe not today, maybe not tomorrow, but a backlash could come with surprising swiftness. To quote Ernest Hemingway’s famous line about the onset of bankruptcy, a consistent policy of predatory hegemony could cause US global influence to decline ‘gradually and then suddenly.’”

 

NASA, the Space Shuttle Challenger and Decision-making

There’s a renowned fictional case study (originated by Jack Brittain and Sim Sitkin) which is used in business schools to help students understand the risks around poorly informed decision-making. The scenario that students are given is to imagine that they are John Carter, the founder of a car racing team. The team is coming up to a very important race – important because there is big prize money at stake, and doing well in the race could mean that they get great publicity but also that they stand a much better chance of winning a big new sponsorship deal which is sorely needed.

The problem however, is that in 7 out of the last 24 races the engine in the Carter racing car has failed, meaning an early retirement from those races. 

u/Eisgboek on online relationship scams

https://www.reddit.com/r/TrueOffMyChest/comments/1rcx7lt/i_traveled_7000_km_to_meet_a_webcam_girl_and_it/o734xkb/?share_id=O8TLJx8CgXpbh7ebmqzJA&context=3

I hate to say, but that's actually part of how the scam works. I mentioned in another comment that it happened to a friend of mine and it was the same scenario. Hours on webcam for the first while until he figured it couldn't be a scam because he was talking to the same person every time and there were no signs of it being anything other than a great connection with another person.

But then once he was good and invested, the requests for money started. But not how you would assume they would if it was a scam. They started by being coupled with a refusal... "I don't have enough for both rent and groceries this week so I guess I'll have to go hungry. No no no. Don't send me any money. That's not what I'm asking. I don't need your help". Until they've somehow got you actually pushing to send them money.

And after that you realize that sending them little bits of cash you won't even miss will go so much further for them in Colombia and besides, it's all your idea so it can't possibly be a scam. And they were so grateful for your help that you're officially in a relationship now and don't couples share money anyways?

But then an emergency happens [...]

u/AlexanderHamilton04 explains grammar

https://www.reddit.com/r/grammar/comments/1raroa2/was_vs_were/o6lzs84/

We use the 'subjunctive mood' to talk about hypotheticals or things that are counterfactual to reality (impossible situations).

Ex: If she were real, she would have to be 8 feet tall to match the proportions of that doll.

↥ Here we use "were" (the subjunctive form) to talk about a hypothetical
situation, "If she were real..."

---

"She was real" is stating a fact (nothing hypothetical or counterfactual).
"I have accepted that she was real." (present tense, perfect aspect)

"I had accepted that she was real." (past perfect) often used to indicate
that an action was completed.

This was before "that action had been completed":

This was before "I had accepted that she was real."

"I was skeptical of it."
"I was skeptical of it even before I had accepted that she was real."

There is nothing hypothetical or counterfactual here. You could even say:
"I never accepted that she was real."

---

---

If you can replace "accepted she was real" with "accepted the fact that she was real,"

then "was" is the correct choice. 

‘They’re back to making millions’: workers accuse US mill where five died in blast

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/sep/29/didion-milling-wisconsin-explosion-deaths

In December 2020, 52-year-old Randal Rote was killed on the job at Didion Milling after being engulfed in a grain bin. Osha issued proposed fines of $676,808 for 14 violations that the company is also currently contesting. The agency criticized the company for failing to learn from previous incidents.

Just a few months prior, according to Osha, a large grain shelf collapsed and nearly engulfed another Didion Milling employee who was cleaning the inside of a grain bin at the time.

Terri Gernstein, the director of the State and Local Enforcement Project at the Harvard Law School Center for Labor, said: “Clearly those fines weren’t sufficient to get the company to completely overhaul its operations to make sure to really, really prioritize workplace safety.

“Because if they had, another worker wouldn’t have been killed three years later.”

Zacharias H. McClendon d. December 18, 2013

https://www.riemannfamily.com/obituaries/zacharias-mcclendon

Zacharias H. McClendon, age 25, of Gulfport, MS, went to be with the Lord on Wednesday, December 18, 2013, in Oxford, MS.

Zach was born in Gulfport to Percy Eugene and Paula Kaye Lee McClendon. He was a graduate of Gulfport High School where he was registered in many gifted classes. He served twice as first chair in the Honor Orchestra for the state of MS playing upright base and cello. He earned an invitation to go to Governor's School during summer break in high school and eventually accepted an educational scholarship to Williams College in Williamstown, MA, where he earned a degree in Chemistry and Biochemistry. During some of his free time, he substitute taught at Gulfport High School and taught Biology 101 at MGCCC in Perkinston. Zach also trained with American Medical Response to be a paramedic. He furthered his education at MS College where he earned his Master's Degree in Biology, Medical Science. He also had interned under two orthopaedic surgeons locally. He was currently an M.B.A. candidate at the University of Mississippi. Zach was going to make the announcement at Christmas to his family and friends that he had been accepted to the University of MS Medical School in Jackson. He was a talented and smart guy who enjoyed tutoring, cooking, and helping others. His accomplishments in such a short time period are a testimony of his God-given spirit as he journeyed to be a doctor that would help the less fortunate. Zach was truly a gift from God. Prior to his birth, the Lord spoke to his mother which led to the name he was given, which was not the name originally selected for him. His legacy of integrity, hard work, and love for others will live on with his family and friends.

Fear and Anger Grow as Thousands Remain Without Power in the South

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/01/us/storm-power-outages-tennessee-mississippi-louisiana.html

Hurricanes and tornadoes, particularly in the South, often cause prolonged power outages, and residents are accustomed to going days without electricity. But it is rare to experience a loss of power during a sustained stretch of ice and freezing temperatures, with cold so fierce that it has left hundreds of workers struggling to navigate icy roads as they try to fix the electrical system.

Anger was continuing to boil over toward the leadership of the Nashville Electric Service. The utility has struggled for days not only to restore power across the city and surrounding county, but also to accurately communicate to customers the scope of the repairs and the timeline needed to complete them.

For Some Americans, the End of Obamacare Subsidies Means Falling Off a Financial Cliff

Earning just one dollar more could mean a $10,000 increase in insurance premiums.

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/30/upshot/obamacare-subsidies-financial-cliff.html

Why was the Affordable Care Act created with a cliff back in 2009? The policy achieved a few important goals for the legislators who wrote it. It limited the total cost of the legislation — an important constraint imposed by the Obama White House. And it insulated Democrats from attacks that they were handing out tax credits to wealthy Americans.

In the early years of Obamacare, the cliff meant a cost increase of a few thousand dollars a year for a typical 60-year-old, though prices varied around the country. Younger Americans, whose insurance tends to be cheaper, often experienced even smaller differences. (The numbers in our charts above illustrate incomes and subsidies for a 60-year-old living in the contiguous United States.)

Dan Sacks, an associate professor of risk and insurance at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, described the difference at the time as more of a “kink” than a “cliff.”

“The expectation was that this would not be a hard cutoff for many people,” he said.

In the years since, as insurance costs have risen faster than incomes, that cliff has gotten taller.

Me and My Shadow

https://kevinsmithstory.blogspot.com/2011/02/me-and-my-shadow.html

In 2006, director Kevin Smith told a detailed story about his friend Jason Mewes' drug addiction on his blog in several parts. Here, I have put it all in one post for all to read and including a connected Jason Mewes video christmas gift to Kevin. The copyright is owned by Kevin Smith and this blog has no affiliation with Kevin, Jason or View Askew Productions...but I think they all rock and probably won't mind. It's one of the most beautiful stories ever told. Enjoy

The Silver-Lined Bullet

https://rethinkingprosperity.substack.com/p/the-silver-lined-bullet?triedRedirect=true

Construction inefficiency isn’t just an operational drag—it’s a financial choke point. Every delay or miscommunication translates directly into dollars: idle crews, wasted materials, loan interest accruing day by day. For small developers, these costs can turn a promising infill project into an unviable gamble. Margins evaporate long before walls go up. The result is that only large, capital-heavy projects pencil out, while the kind of modest, human-scale housing our cities need—duplexes, triplexes, courtyard homes—rarely makes it past the pro forma stage. The system, in effect, prices out the middle housing we claim to want.

The Real Reason MAHA Hates Vaccines

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/28/opinion/maha-vaccines-kennedy-denmark.html\

And what this implies is rather striking, and rarely discussed by those outside of public health: that among their many purposes and benefits, vaccines have served now for decades as a kind of substitute health safety net in America. They are a way of limiting the downside consequences of all of our country’s notorious shortcomings: its lack of universal or free health care, its imperfect health insurance system, its lack of robust disease surveillance and screening, its declining trust in medical institutions and practitioners, its yawning gaps of economic inequality and equally horrifying disparities in morbidity and mortality.

Elsewhere, these problems might be addressed in other ways, through various forms of redistribution, welfare policy and social spending. In the United States, it seems, the best we’ve been able to do is to protect against some of the health manifestations of those problems with a few shots. Give a pregnant mother an R.S.V. vaccine and you can worry less about whether her child will have easy access to care and treatment for respiratory infections. Give a newborn a hepatitis B shot and it matters much less whether someone in the family is an intravenous drug user who might be carrying the disease. Give a full course of M.M.R. protection and you don’t need to worry quite as much about the way measles is much more punishing for those suffering malnutrition. And if you don’t do any of these things, or you make it harder for others to — well, all those problems start to loom a bit larger.

When Are Half Your Members Going to be Dead?

https://www.graphsaboutreligion.com/p/when-are-half-your-members-going

 I cannot emphasize this point enough — we are in a lull right now. While most major denominations have been experiencing decline for a while, their ship has remained seaworthy. Yeah, some water will lap over the sides every once in a while, but there are still enough buckets and enough laborers to toss it back into the ocean.[...]

This should come as a shock to no one who is vaguely aware of American religion — Episcopalians are old. In fact, two-thirds of their adult members have celebrated their 60th birthday. In contrast, just 6% are under the age of thirty. Put simply: for every young adult Episcopalian in the pews this Sunday, there will be about ten retirees. Oof.

Internet voting is insecure and should not be used in public elections

https://blog.citp.princeton.edu/2026/01/16/internet-voting-is-insecure-and-should-not-be-used-in-public-elections/

Scientists have understood for many years that internet voting is insecure and that there is no known or foreseeable technology that can make it secure. Still, vendors of internet voting keep claiming that, somehow, their new system is different, or the insecurity doesn’t matter. Bradley Tusk and his Mobile Voting Foundation keep touting internet voting to journalists and election administrators; this whole effort is misleading and dangerous.

Buried Talents: How Elites betray their own potential

https://edankrolewicz.substack.com/p/buried-talents

I believe that to those to whom much is given, much is expected.

This is not a popular position among my peers.

They prefer a morality of non-interference: be kind, don’t hurt anyone, tend your garden. They’ve constructed elaborate philosophical frameworks to justify why people with top-tier cognitive abilities, financial security, social capital, and institutional access have no greater obligations than anyone else.

I think they’re wrong. And I think, deep down, they, too know they’re wrong. The fact that they squirm at the suggestion that maybe they’ve been optimizing for the wrong thing suggests as much.

I’m writing this as someone who is trying to figure it out, in public, and who thinks the figuring out might be useful to others in the same position. I don’t have a clean answer for what elites should do with their lives. I have my own bets—civic technology, participatory democracy, trying to make government work better—and I have no idea if they’ll amount to anything.

What I do have is a clear view of the problem, and I think naming it honestly is worth something, even if the solution remains incomplete.

Statement by Sheriff Powers of Wilkes County, GA on the Monks' passage through

https://www.facebook.com/share/p/16t1ZEVnPa/

To those questioning the how, why, or when regarding the Sheriff’s Office’s involvement: I was elected by the people of Wilkes County to serve and protect our citizens and all who pass through our county. There are no exceptions to that responsibility, and there never will be. I do not worship these men, nor will I ever. However, I will ensure they have safe passage through our county, just as I would for anyone else, and that they leave knowing their safety was taken seriously.

I do believe that if each of us put as much effort into our own beliefs or faith as these men are demonstrating right now, our churches would be full and our jails empty. Instead, too often we post negativity about why we do not believe the way others believe, rather than using moments like this as opportunities to teach or to preach.

21 Lessons From 14 Years at Google

https://addyosmani.com/blog/21-lessons/

3. Bias towards action. Ship. You can edit a bad page, but you can’t edit a blank one.

The quest for perfection is paralyzing. I’ve watched engineers spend weeks debating the ideal architecture for something they’ve never built. The perfect solution rarely emerges from thought alone - it emerges from contact with reality. AI can in many ways help here.

First do it, then do it right, then do it better. Get the ugly prototype in front of users. Write the messy first draft of the design doc. Ship the MVP that embarrasses you slightly. You’ll learn more from one week of real feedback than a month of theoretical debate.

Momentum creates clarity. Analysis paralysis creates nothing.