https://www.richardhanania.com/p/the-problem-with-polling-might-be
But what if the problem is that Republican voters are the type of people that don’t talk to pollsters? And the few Republicans that do talk to them are unrepresentative of the party itself? If this were the case, then there would be no clear fix. A recent paper by Vanderbilt University professor Joshua Clinton and two colleagues called “Reluctant Republicans, Eager Democrats? Partisan Nonresponse and the Accuracy of 2020 Presidential Pre-Election Telephone Polls” indicates that this is exactly what is happening.
The authors looked at 12 competitive states in the 2020 election. Telephone surveys as part of the National Exit Poll by Edison Research were conducted between October 19 and November 1, 2020. In some states, those making the phone calls had access to the party registration of the people they were trying to reach, while in others potential respondents were given an imputed partisan lean based on demographic characteristics. Republicans were 3.2 points less likely than Democrats to cooperate with pollsters, and Independents were even more non-responsive.