05 June, 2020

Economists predicted 20 percent unemployment in May. How did they get it so wrong?

Economists predicted the official U.S. unemployment rate would hit 20 percent — or really close to it — in May. Instead, the world learned Friday morning that the official rate is actually 13.3 percent, an improvement from 14.7 percent in April.
It was, as economist Chris Rupkey emailed, the “biggest forecast miss of our life.”