STELLAReportFinalFinal.pdf - Google Drive:
A common experience was "I didn't know that it worked this way." People are surprised when they
find out that their own mental model of The System (in the Figure 1 or Figure 2 sense) doesn't match
the behavior of the system.
More rarely a surprise produces astonishment, a sense that the world has changed or is
unrecognizable in an important way. This is sometimes called fundamental surprise (Lanir, 1983; Woods
et al., 2010, pp 215-219). Bob Wears four characteristics of fundamental surprise that make it
different from situational surprise (Wears, R. L., & Webb, L. K., 2011):
1. situational surprise is compatible with previous beliefs about ‘how things work’; fundamental
surprise refutes basic beliefs;
2. it is possible to anticipate situational surprise; fundamental surprise cannot be anticipated;
3. situational surprise can be averted by tuning warning systems; fundamental surprise
challenges models that produced success in the past;
4. learning from situational surprise closes quickly; learning from fundamental surprise requires
model revision and changes that reverberate.
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