On arming the Syrian opposition, then, it’s probably going to happen regardless of what Western powers decide — it’ll be undertaken largely by Gulf powers such as Saudi Arabia and Qatar, which played a major role in boosting the Libyan rebel forces on the ground in the battle to oust Muammar Gaddafi. And the Russians will continue to arm the Assad regime, unwilling for their own geopolitical reasons to countenance his ouster. Russia has declined an invitation to attend Friday’s discussion in Tunis, giving as its reason the fact that the Syrian government was not invited. China has yet to respond, but it, too, has supported seeking a political solution through dialogue with the regime, rather than forcing it out of power.
For Western and Arab powers — as well as the main exile-based opposition group that they appear to be moving towards recognizing as as an alternative, the Syrian National Council — the time for negotiating terms with Assad has passed. Obviously, Assad doesn’t agree, nor do his backers in Moscow and Tehran. And his forces’ sustained bombardment of rebel-held suburbs of the city of Homs despite a U.N. General Assembly resolution demanding a halt to repression is a sign that the regime is still trying to crush the rebellion through a massive concentration of force. Instead, however, the uprising appears to be spreading, with protests last weekend reaching into previously passive, well-heeled neighborhoods in Damascus. Still, despite the slow but steady decline of its control over all of Syria, the regime’s security forces remain dominant: they are unable to eliminate the rebellion, nor are they in any immediate danger of disintegrating.