31 January, 2024

The forecasting fallacy

https://www.alexmurrell.co.uk/articles/the-forecasting-fallacy

It’s time we opened our eyes.

Let’s stop clamouring over the ten-year trend decks. Let’s stop counting on the constant conjecture of consultants. Let’s stop trying to guess the future and start trying to build it.

We do not travel through time on a predefined path. The future is not fixed but the result of the actions we take in the present. If you want to be successful over the next 10 years, start building a competitive advantage over the next 10 months. If you want to win tomorrow, start tilting the table today. If you believe things should change in the future, put pen to paper in the present.

The future is uncertain. You cannot predict it. But you can create it.

Or as Cindy Gallup likes to say:
“In order to predict the future, you have to invent it".