01 May, 2014

See the Curve Bend | New Republic

See the Curve Bend | New Republic:

Reform lowers the rate of growth of health
spending for a few years, primarily with Medicare savings. Then the rate
of growth jumps up above baseline as the uninsured are brought into the
system (the effect is really a one time increase in spending, but it
shows up as big rates of growth for a few years as the uninsured are
covered and use more services). Then things settle down back to the
point where the rate of growth is below baseline, reflecting the effect
of Medicare savings and the tax on high cost insurance plans.

You could make a legitimate argument that the curve should bend down
more, something the president and Congress could do by pushing hard on
some of the cost-cutting measures that have been watered down through
the legislative process. But you can't make a legitimate argument that
the Actuary projections--which, remember, are based on pretty
conservative assumptions about the potential of specific reforms to save
money--prove the curve bends up. If anything, the projections show the
curve bending down.